Six prominent advocates of climate and energy justice have been arrested and detained in Vietnam for their efforts to help wean the country from coal. Among them is environmental justice lawyer Dang Dinh Bach, who is serving a five-year prison sentence. Bach was the founder and director of the Law and Policy of Sustainable Development Research Centre, where he dedicated his life to the public health of marginalised communities. The UN Human Rights Council Working Group on Arbitrary Detention released an opinion earlier this year regarding Bach’s imprisonment, finding it a “violation of international law” and expressing concerns about a “systemic problem with arbitrary detention” of environmental defenders in Vietnam. 

Another leading defender of climate justice in Vietnam, Hoang Thi Minh Hong, founder of the environmental group CHANGE VN, was recently sentenced to three years in prison. To date, the United Nations, United States, United Kingdom and European Union have all released statements condemning her recent conviction and sentencing. 

It is in this context that we urge multilateral development banks like the ADB and World Bank, along with donor governments, not to bulldoze ahead with the plans for implementing the JETP or associated projects. Doing so would mean acting as complicit bystanders in the silencing and reprisals faced by community rights, workers’, environmental and climate advocates.

Elsewhere in the region, including the Philippines and Indonesia, ADB and World Bank Group plans to dole out hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds, to enable coal companies to refurbish or retire their facilities, have been heavily criticised by environmental, climate and social-justice groups. Though these schemes are labelled as contributions to a Just Transition – and are explicitly being considered as part of the JETP arrangements in Indonesia – the reality is that project operators are not being held culpable for the harm and damage wrought by their coal-fired power plants on community livelihoods, workers’ health and the environment. 

Clear promises to retain or provide dignified retirement packages and redress for health impacts for workers remain nonexistent, and proposals for “green jobs” lack commitments that would ensure core labour rights as per international conventions. Instead, the plans being put in place prioritise “repurposing” rather than decommissioning coal plants – allowing facilities that once burned coal to be refurbished to rely upon burning other resource-intensive, high greenhouse gas-emitting fuels such as woody biomass or waste. Meanwhile, workers and residents in surrounding communities will still be left to face the prospect of working and living in areas where the air, land and water are contaminated.

Alarmingly, it appears the same model of “repurposing” coal facilities will be proposed for financing under the Vietnam JETP.  Plans moving forward in the name of Just Transition are being backed by a powerful set of corporate and financial actors. In response, civil society, community groups and workers’ alliances across the region have consistently called for banks and donor governments to establish clear commitments – to ensure there are safe spaces where people can voice concerns and provide feedback, to inform the planning process before plans move to the implementation phase. 

The high-level political declaration announcing the JETP in Vietnam affirmed the importance of consultation with diverse stakeholders, including NGOs and civil society, to achieve a “broad social consensus” on the country’s energy-transition pathway. But the disabling environment for civil society and community-based groups in Vietnam means it is impossible to engage meaningfully in any consultative processes, free of the fear that another of their representatives may be next in line to be arbitrarily detained, charged and imprisoned. The ADB and the World Bank Group also have clear provisions guaranteeing access to information, transparency and public participation enshrined in policy, none of which is possible in the current context in Vietnam. 

Crucially, the Asia Pacific Climate Week and the gatherings associated with the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation should be a time when both the  ADB and World Bank Group finally “walk the talk” by issuing statements that offer support for the release of these environmental and human-rights defenders. More broadly, they must commit to suspending Just Transition-related planning processes and financing until there are safe, meaningful spaces for community, workers’  and civil-society groups to raise questions, concerns and grievances.

Meanwhile, mobilisation by civil-society groups outside of Vietnam, to secure the release of Bach, Hong and other incarcerated environmental and human-rights defenders, will continue. So, too, will collective efforts to advance processes, principles and practices of equitable, rights-based Just Transitions within, across and beyond the region.

Tanya Lee Roberts Davis is the Just Transitions Advocacy Coordinator at NGO Forum on ADB

The post Questioning Development Banks’ Commitments to Just Transition appeared first on Southeast Asia Globe.

In the Areng Valley, a river-carved flatland in the range sparsely populated by villages of indigenous Chorng people, that includes any semblance of cellular reception. 

This means it’s usually best to meet in-person with Reem Souvsee, the deputy chief of the valley’s Chomnoab commune. Otherwise, Souvsee explained, she might get some reception near the roof of her house, or up the neighbouring mountains where local men go to harvest resin from trees to sell for a bit of income.

Despite that isolation, in recent months this stretch of rural communities amongst densely jungled peaks has been pulled into the centre of global debate about carbon credits – a development scheme organised under a U.N.-backed framework called REDD+.

These credits are intended to limit the emissions that cause climate change by preventing deforestation in places like Areng. They’re purchased by major polluters, including some of the world’s largest oil and gas firms, to offset their fossil fuel emissions by essentially sponsoring the protection of forests, in developing countries such as Cambodia.

Some of these credits are already coming from the mountains near Souvsee’s home, which lies within the Southern Cardamom REDD+ project. Managed by the nonprofit Wildlife Alliance in partnership with the Cambodian government, the roughly 4,453-square-kilometre project in Koh Kong province includes portions of two national parks and another officially protected area. It is the largest of four such registered carbon credit zones in Cambodia. 

The project has also been seen abroad as one of the flagships for the burgeoning climate finance sector. But that image took a major hit in June when the world’s leading carbon credit registry service, a U.S.-based non-profit called Verra, abruptly suspended issuing new credits for the site in response to an as-yet unreleased investigation from global advocacy group Human Rights Watch alleging rights abuses by environmental officials and rangers within the project area.

The finer mechanics of the carbon credit model are mostly unknown to locals in Areng, who were unaware of these developments. But Souvsee – a member of Cambodia’s besieged political opposition Candlelight Party and a former affiliate with the conservation activist group Mother Nature – saw reason to support the programme, which has funded local infrastructure and community development. 

“We want REDD+ to be here, but we want them to respect our rights as indigenous people,” she said. “They can help protect our forest, our culture – and they can help protect [our land] from companies too.” 

For rural forest communities such as those of Areng, the threat presented by outside companies is very real. 

Rights organisations annually rank Cambodia among the most corrupt in the world, pointing to well-documented elite networks that have granted themselves near-total control of the Kingdom’s natural resources under a sprawling political patronage system. This has seen the country’s once-vast forests and other officially protected landscapes traditionally doled out among an overlapping class of tycoons and politicians, usually to be stripped for timber and developed into agricultural plantations.

At the same time, the Cambodian government has pledged to expand carbon credit programmes across its many officially protected areas, as well as a deepening partnership with regional finance hub Singapore to bring its sprouting credits to a global market.

The Ministry of Environment has announced at least eight credit projects in the works in recent years, with two currently awaiting registration with Verra. Officials didn’t answer questions about their plans when contacted by a reporter.

Some conservationists argue the basic financial premise of REDD+ offers an alternative path forward, a means of changing the status quo for forests in Cambodia and other developing countries. They say credit sales provide a funding model that’s actually sustainable on the ground, allowing for more concerted efforts to protect nature. Project developers also assert a system that rewards states for keeping trees standing – as opposed to clear-cut for timber, mining or other development – is a much-needed step in the future of environmental protection. 

But critics say these plans still fail to defuse the key drivers of deforestation by powerful economic interests, especially in countries such as Cambodia where land rights and environmental protections wither in the face of political clout and profit-seeking. Worse, some say, the brunt of the protections brought with REDD+ often fall on some of the world’s poorest communities – often smallholder farmers who depend on forests to eke out subsistence livelihoods. 

“I think there’s been a growing disappointment with REDD+ projects,” said Professor Ida Theilade, a forestry expert with the University of Copenhagen. She’s studied Cambodia for more than 20 years and has, in the past, done consulting for carbon credit projects in other countries. “It’s very hard to find those success stories, those really big stars in the sky.”

The recent Verra suspension has pulled that critical spotlight squarely on the Southern Cardamom REDD+ project.

Verra stated it was investigating the situation in Southern Cardamom further, but didn’t comment beyond that. Human Rights Watch also did not disclose their report to the Globe. 

Though minimal details from the group’s study have been made public, its researchers had reportedly documented rights violations carried out against local people by public officials and conservation rangers in the development of the REDD+ project.

Even just a hint of these preliminary findings was immediately familiar to many in Cambodia. 

Though the forests under its watch remain some of the thickest in the country, Wildlife Alliance has long been accused of heavy-handed enforcement of environmental restrictions with often-impoverished local villagers. The not-yet-public Human Rights Watch report likely taps into this history.

Suwanna Gauntlett, Wildlife Alliance CEO and founder, denies abuses, saying her organisation is working to support rural livelihoods while safeguarding protected areas. She places the group’s role in Cambodia in a longer arc of conservation in the Kingdom, tracing back to the group’s earliest days in 2000 – operating in a near-lawless environment to fight land-grabbing, human-caused forest fires and widespread poaching.

“We used to be the good guys doing good stuff, and now we’re the villains,” said Gauntlett, reflecting on the spotlight cast on her group by Human Rights Watch. “I don’t know how comfortable I feel in my new role.”

On the ground

The Southern Cardamom REDD+ project seemed to provide a ready case study for bigger questions facing climate financing in Cambodia. So as part of a broader investigation of greenwashing conducted in partnership with the Earth Journalism Network, reporters from the Southeast Asia Globe and the U.K.-based outlet SourceMaterial, spent about a week total travelling through the Southern Cardamom zone over two separate trips. 

With regular check-ins and surveillance from local police, reporters spoke with more than 30 people in communities around the area. These interviews ranged from villagers and local officials to Wildlife Alliance employees.

What they found was – a mixed bag.

“On the whole, we’re happy with REDD+,” said Chhan Kong, 41, a fisherman and rice farmer living in the village of Teuk La’ak. “[But] the rangers can be harsh and aggressive.”

When he and others ventured into the protected area to make camp and fish – a permitted activity – Kong said they ran the risk of having their camping equipment confiscated or destroyed by rangers. 

This was a common thread in many interviews, and locals also told reporters they felt compelled to run at the sight of rangers lest they run afoul of restrictions. Those caught breaking the rules could be sent to court, villagers said.

Maybe the most notable recent incident in the REDD+ zone that the Globe heard of involved a then-62-year-old woman who was briefly detained by rangers about two years ago. Presumably on the way to their station, the rangers let her go with no further action after other community members went to advocate for her release. 

Still frightened and confused, she told reporters the rangers had picked her up for cutting a small tree near her farm. 

As with her case, the single-most common appeal was for greater communication and cooperation, especially for farmers, fisherfolk and others around the boundaries and enforcement of protected areas. A Wildlife Alliance field official who spoke with reporters said there was signage to mark these edges and showed them a detailed map, but acknowledged it wasn’t distributed to local people. 

Hoeng Pov, a Chorng community representative in Areng Valley, said even commune officials often lacked key information about the project.

“We really want to know about accountability – how much [do they earn] from selling carbon, how much do they pay for organisations who do this project and for the communities as well?” he mused to reporters. “Some organisations haven’t addressed people’s concerns, they only talk about their project. [And] after they got money from this project they haven’t let us know how the money was divided.” 

Though questions remained, almost everyone reporters spoke with agreed on the importance of protecting the forest. 

Besides the carbon-sucking benefits that trees and other plant life provide on their own, cutting them down also has massive impacts on the climate – deforestation contributes as much as 20% to global carbon emissions. 

According to the nonprofit Global Forest Watch , Cambodia has lost about 31% of its tree cover since 2000, amounting to about 1.57 gigatons of carbon emissions. 

At the same time, its forays into carbon crediting have produced mixed results.

Of its four Verra-registered REDD+ projects, two have experienced severe deforestation. One of these is in the province of Oddar Meanchey and the other is called Tumring, located on the edge of the country’s once-vast, now-vanishing Prey Lang forest. 

Regarded as the largest lowland evergreen forest remaining in mainland Southeast Asia, even the protected areas of Prey Lang are steadily dissolving under industrial-scale logging operations. 

Tumring was developed in partnership with the South Korean government, but primarily overseen by the Cambodian Forestry Administration. The forester Theialde said satellite imagery has shown dramatic loss of tree cover at the project site, and it’s unclear if it’s actually selling credits.

Oddar Meanchey, Cambodia’s first foray into carbon crediting, has suffered a similar fate. With backing from the U.N. Development Program, the project initially found commitments from organisations such as Disney and Virgin Airlines to buy credits. But the corporate backers cancelled after it became apparent that local officials and military units had asserted their own claims to officially protected land.

Meanwhile, Cambodia’s second-largest REDD+ project – managed by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) at the Keo Seima Wildlife Sanctuary in the northern province of Mondulkiri – is generally considered a success. 

Colin Moore, the Southeast Asia regional REDD+ coordinator for WCS, said revenues from the credits sold from the project have been a game-changer for the group’s work on the site.

“It’s really allowed us to scale our activities on the ground,” said Moore. “We’ve only very recently entered a world where you can do more than just fund a bare-bones conservation programme in these landscapes.”

Moore said WCS works with Everland, a company based in the U.S., to market and sell the credits from REDD+ projects to buyers around the world. Everland also does the same for the Southern Cardamom project.

When credits are sold from Keo Seima, a portion of their sales revenue goes to Everland or other fees, but the rest of the proceeds are split between WCS Cambodia and the Environment Ministry. Moore said the breakdown is 20% for the ministry, 80% for the project itself, deposited into an account managed by WCS. 

That latter pool of money goes into funding conservation projects within Keo Seima, including personnel costs and programming related to rural livelihood development, community land titling and more.

Both Moore and Wildlife Alliance declined to say how much in total funding their credit sales have made over the life of the project so far. Local media has quoted government officials stating the Environment Ministry itself has raised $11.6 million in carbon credit sales since 2016, which would be only a portion of the total revenues.

Moore said the successes of the Keo Seima and Southern Cardamom REDD+ projects were the “proof of concept” before the Cambodian government’s current push to develop more credit programmes. A boost in global interest in financing such projects since 2021 – the first year of the Paris Climate Accords commitment period – also helped drive interest, he added.

“The existing projects that were here in Cambodia had been ticking along, eking by on some small sales here and there,” Moore said. “Only after 2021 did they start to make big sales, be able to move their inventory.”

Critiques and hopes

Conservation funding aside, critics of REDD+ have not found it a convincing model to mitigate climate change. 

An extensive report from a carbon trading research centre at the University of California-Berkeley asserted last month that loose REDD+ assessments and quality control practices by Verra are leading to “over-crediting” and “exaggerated” claims about the impact of such projects. 

As a result, they said, credits sold under the promise of directly offsetting specific amounts of carbon emissions likely represent only “a small fraction of their claimed climate benefit”. The researchers also wrote that REDD+ projects focus their enforcement efforts on rural, often-impoverished forest communities while remaining unable to address large-scale deforestation caused by more powerful economic interests.

“Our overall conclusion is that REDD+ is ill-suited to the generation of carbon credits for use as offsets,” the researchers wrote, adding that the current “market system creates a race to the bottom that is hard to emerge from.” 

Those within the sector itself have a different view.

Everland President Joshua Tosteson freely admits the industry is imperfect but is adamant that its basic premise is a good one when done properly. He said he hadn’t read the Berkeley report in depth, but noted that he agreed with it that the Verra system allowed for a “wide variability right now in respect to how projects get set up in relation to the communities.” 

“There isn’t really like what you might call a normative standard, a quality standard for how things ought to be done,” he said, adding that applied to things such as gaining free prior and informed consent and revenue sharing with local people.

That makes it hard to properly gauge how well projects actually address the underlying social and economic reasons for forest loss, Tosteson added. 

Beyond that, he rejected the larger denunciations of the Berkeley report, ascribing some of its findings to a broader wariness of using market solutions to address deforestation or climate change issues. However, for a country such as Cambodia, he thought the financial incentive that REDD+ brought to conservation could help keep trees standing.

“The thing about REDD that I think people do not appreciate and understand is that money talks – and the fact that there has been financial success associated with forest conservation in these two places [Southern Cardamom and Keo Seima] is beginning to change the mind of the government,” he said. “It’s going to take a while, but this is definitely part of the trajectory that I think can get you to a different ethos at a national level.”

At Wildlife Alliance’s offices in Phnom Penh, Gauntlett and her organisation also stand by their work.

Besides using the revenues from carbon credit sales to fund protection of the REDD+ area, the group also listed a range of material investments in the rural communities of the Southern Cardamom project. 

Besides helping start “community-based eco-tourism” centres, Gauntlett also said her group had shored up land tenure for residents in the REDD+ zone by facilitating the government processing of just under 5,000 “hard” land titles – a level of official recognition of ownership often difficult to secure in Cambodia – covering nearly 12,250 parcels of private land there. She expected the Ministry of Land Management to issue an additional 7,249 titles through 2024.

Gauntlett also listed infrastructure developments such as about 28 kilometres of new or rehabbed roads in the project zone, 94 solar-powered water wells, 77 toilets, two schools and a bridge. Wildlife Alliance also funded 16 full university scholarships for students to study and live in Phnom Penh, she said.

Reporters were able to see much of the hard infrastructure for themselves as they traveled through the project area. In the Areng Valley, one older resident said the newly installed toilet was the first she’d ever had. 

While the Wildlife Alliance REDD+ programme officially started in 2015, Gauntlett said her organisation had first tried to establish the programme in 2008 – but was rejected by the Cambodian government.

“Finally when REDD started, it was pretty much already all done. It wasn’t a decision that came out of the blue like this,” she said. When asked why the government had initially been against it, Gauntlett was concise.

“Very simple. More money to be made through economic land concessions.”

‘An illusion’

Still, the incentives offered by climate finance will need to compete with more short-term motivations. Not everyone shares Gauntlett’s optimism that carbon credits are up to task.

The forester Theilade is among them. She mostly focuses on the vanishing Prey Lang forest and the community networks that have struggled to maintain it against powerful interests. 

She was also involved in the early 2000s with helping the Cambodian government develop its “REDD+ Roadmap”, a planning process with World Bank funding that ostensibly evolved into the Kingdom’s current strategy. 

Today, she occasionally reviews conservation proposals with carbon trading components, but she’s not working specifically with crediting schemes. 

Theilade is also not involved with Wildlife Alliance or their work in Southern Cardamom but said she’d read about the organisation’s presence there. Though she gave some credit to them, she said Cambodia’s extensive patronage system leaves no quarter for good intentions – especially where forestland is concerned.

Such an outcome for Wildlife Alliance has already happened elsewhere in the country. Last year, its partners in the Forestry Administration conspired against the conservation group with local officials and prominent tycoons to clear-cut and parcel out a smaller forest that Wildlife Alliance had preserved just outside the Phnom Penh metro. 

The conservation group had used that area, known as Phnom Tamao, as a sanctuary for rare and endangered animals. Though a rare surge of public discontent put a stop to development of the land, the forest itself was decimated. 

Based on global prices for carbon on the offsets market, Theilade thought there was no way for credits to compete with other land uses associated with the patronage system – especially timber logged from protected areas.

Though she gently cautioned that she didn’t want to “sound too negative” about the work being done by some conservation groups to build out such schemes, Theilade just didn’t see it as a realistic option given the political weight against conservation.

“It has to be a government deciding, or a culture deciding, that these forests are worth something to us,” she said, describing the various ecological, social and spiritual benefits that forests provide in Cambodia. “That the government is going to conserve forests for some small carbon payments, I’m afraid, is an illusion.”

Contributed reporting by Anton Delgado, Meng Kroypunlok, Roun Ry and SourceMaterial.

This story was produced with support from Internews’ Earth Journalism Network.

The post Carbon ambitions: Inside Cambodia’s REDD+ boom appeared first on Southeast Asia Globe.

Since 1970, 2 million people have lost their lives to disasters. Tragically, but all too predictably, the poorest in the least-developed countries are worst-affected. They will find themselves in the eye of the storm as temperatures rise, new disaster hotspots appear and existing risks increase. Unless we fundamentally change our approach to building resilience to disaster risk, temperature rises of 1.5°C or 2°C will make adaptation to the threat of disasters unfeasible. Disaster risk could soon outpace resilience in Asia and the Pacific.

It is worth pondering what this would mean. The grim tally of disaster-related deaths would inevitably rise, as would the annual cost of disaster-related losses, forecast to increase to almost $1 trillion, or 3% of regional GDP, under 2°C warming  up from $924 billion today, or 2.9% of regional GDP. The deadly combination of disasters and extreme weather would undermine productivity and imperil sustainable development. 

In the poorest parts of our region, such as the Pacific small island developing states, disasters would become a major driver of inequality. 

Losses would be particularly devastating in the agriculture and energy sectors, disrupting food systems and undermining food security as well as jeopardizing energy supply and production. Environmental degradation and biodiversity loss would be remorseless, leading to climate change-driven extinctions and further increasing disaster risk.

To avoid this exponential growth of disaster risk, there is a narrow window of opportunity to increase resilience and protect hard-won development gains. To seize it, bold decisions are needed to deliver transformative adaptation. They can no longer be postponed. 

This week, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is convening top policymakers, experts and academics from across the region on 25-27 July to discuss transformative adaptation policies and actions at ESCAP’s Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction. The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 will also be launched at the Committee.

The stakeholders drawn to this meeting will consider key questions such as prioritizing greater investment in early warning systems. 

Expanding coverage in least developed countries is the most effective way to reduce the number of people killed. Early warning systems can shield people living in multi-hazard hotspots and reduce disaster losses everywhere by up to 60%. They provide a tenfold return on investment. To protect food systems and reduce the exposure of the energy infrastructure – the backbone of our economies – sector-specific coverage is needed. 

Investments at the local level to improve communities’ response to early warning alerts, delivered through expanded global satellite data use and embedded in comprehensive risk management policies, must all be part of our approach. 

Only transformative adaptation can deliver the systemic change needed to leave no one behind.

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana

Nature-based solutions should be at the heart of adaptation strategies. They support the sustainable management, protection and restoration of degraded environments while reducing disaster risk. The evidence is unequivocal: preserving functional ecosystems in good ecological condition strengthens disaster risk reduction. This means preserving wetlands, flood plains and forests to guard against natural hazards, and mangroves and coral reefs to reduce coastal flooding. 

Forest restoration and sustainable agriculture are essential. In our urban centers, nature-based solutions can mitigate urban flooding and contribute to future urban resilience, including by reducing heat island effects.  

Beyond these priorities, only transformative adaptation can deliver the systemic change needed to leave no one behind in multi-hazard risk hotspots. Such change will cut across policy areas. It means aligning social protection and climate change interventions to enable poor and climate-vulnerable households to adapt and protect their assets and livelihoods. 

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation must become complementary to make food and energy systems more resilient, particularly in disaster-prone arid areas and coastlines. Technologies such as the ‘Internet of Things’ and artificial intelligence can improve the accuracy of real-time weather predictions as well as how disaster warnings are communicated.  

Yet to make this happen, disaster risk financing needs to be dramatically increased, with financing mechanisms scaled up. In a constrained fiscal context, we must remember that investments made upstream are far more cost-effective than spending after a disaster. 

The current level of adaptation finance falls well short of the $144.74 billion needed for transformative adaptation. We must tap innovative financing mechanisms to close the gap. Thematic bonds, debt for adaptation and ecosystem adaptation finance can help attract private investment, reduce risk and create new markets. These instruments should complement official development assistance, while digital technologies improve the efficiency, transparency and accessibility of adaptation financing.

Now is the time to work together, to build on innovation and scientific breakthroughs to accelerate transformative adaptation across the region. 

A regional strategy that supports early warnings for all is needed to strengthen cooperation through the well-established United Nations mechanisms and in partnership with subregional intergovernmental organizations. At ESCAP, we stand ready to support this process every step of the way because sharing best practices and pooling resources can improve our region’s collective resilience and response to climate-related hazards. 

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development can only be achieved if we ensure disaster resilience is never outpaced by disaster risk. Let us seize the moment and protect our future in Asia and the Pacific.

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the under-secretary-general of the UN and executive secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

The post Amidst disasters, seizing the moment for a more resilient Asia-Pacific appeared first on Southeast Asia Globe.

It was early in the morning in the high-fuelled atmosphere of Ecosperity Week, a three-day conference hosted in the Lion City from 6-8 June inviting business leaders, policy-makers and investors to track the path to Asia’s transition to a “net zero” carbon output. 

On the tail end of record-breaking heat waves across Southeast Asia, such an event could leave room for cynicism. But Perry O’Neill, former U.K. energy minister and current managing director for climate and energy at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, a global organisation of 200 businesses, sees plenty of reason for hope.

“I’m very optimistic,” she said. “The climate numbers are difficult. We’re dealing with record heat levels, which is a wake up call. But we’re up for the challenge. And I find that very, very energising.”

A long-time booster for energy transition policy, Perry O’Neil served as a minister in the Conservative-led government from 2017-2019. In that role, she made some milestones while pushing forward the U.K.’s ground-breaking net zero legislation and successful bid to host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in 2021. 

But now, following an abrupt split from the government at the start of the year – claiming the ruling Conservative party was dominated by “ideology and self-obsession” – Perry O’Neill is back to business.

Amidst the heat of a rising climate crisis paired with growing public scrutiny of corporate ‘greenwashing’, the private sector will likely need to do more to substantiate claims of environmental friendliness. Now, both with the council and as an advisor to Terrascope, a Singapore-based decarbonisation platform, Perry O’Neill aims to provide better tools to accurately monitor emissions along value chains. The goal is to help companies meet evolving reporting requirements while pushing investment to be more effectively climate-conscious.

“The slight tragedy of it is that the global climate community thinks businesses are the bad guys. There is a view that growth is bad business,” she observed. “[It’s] so much better to have public-private cooperation and really unleash business and have it do what is good.”

We still had a view that this was all highly negative and costly. And it is costly. But there was no conversation about the opportunity and the growth.”

Claire Perry O’Neill

Business is Perry O’Neill’s background, as her political career was preceded by 20 years in consulting and finance. 

It wasn’t until a professional pause that the Oxford University geography graduate considered the increasingly ominous climate crisis as a core part of her career. 

“It was the first spike in climate interest,” she recalled, describing the mid-2000s. “It was when Al Gore’s movie came out, there was that feeling of quick climate chaos.” 

A policy role led to her becoming a member of parliament in the then-opposition Conservative party, and eventually a part of former Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet. 

“It was just after the Paris Agreement of 2016-17, so we had this kind of shared narrative,” she said. “But we still had a view that this was all highly negative and costly. And it is costly. But there was no conversation about the opportunity and the growth and the fact that if we are going to do this, there are ways to do it fair and equitable – and also profitable.”

Now, more than half a decade later, Perry O’Neill is attempting to tackle these conversations from the other side of the public-private divide. 

One example she points to is the buildings that make up tightly-packed cityscapes that make up regional metropolitan areas such as Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta. Buildings account for around 40% of finite energy consumption in Southeast Asia. But as Perry points out, “we pass policies all the time that say we have to have more energy efficient buildings. [But] it’s really difficult to do on the ground.”

Transitioning 80% of Singapore’s buildings to ‘green buildings’ meeting certain environmental standards such as reduction in energy, water and material resource usage, is a key part of the government Building Construction Authority’s Green Building Masterplan. 

But according to a report by energy management system company Schneider Electric and the Singapore Green Building Council (SGBC), 60% of 500 Singapore-based firms surveyed weren’t familiar with the concept of green buildings, and only 12% indicated that all their operations used them. 

“There is a sense of urgency that needs to happen, because these are really long tail decisions.”

Claire Perry O’Neill

A key challenge contributing to this disconnect is lack of transparency and data. During an Ecosperity panel, Lauren Sorkin, executive director of the Resilient Cities Network, estimated that investors could miss out on $7 trillion in benefits from nature-based climate solutions, such as planting mangroves in coastal areas, before the end of the decade due to lack of data. 

It is this kind of data that Perry O’Neill believes is critical for the private sector to integrate energy transition as a realistic, attainable part of business continuity. 

“If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it,” she said. “What you need to do is have your CFO, your procurement head, make decisions every day that reduce your overall value chain emissions.”

Increased scrutiny of businesses’ carbon emissions can help tackle the opaqueness that facilitates corporate greenwashing. On the flip side, it also forces governments and businesses to consider the potential impact of a dramatic energy shift, especially for a region that remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. 

Against that entrenched reliance on carbon-based energy, there is no shortage of ambitious promises in the region.

Indonesia – a country that exported a record 448.5 million tonnes of coal in 2022 and generates more than 60% of its energy from the carbon fuel – has recently claimed it can reach net zero emissions by 2055, ahead of its target. 

Some private-sector actors seem to be on board to ditch coal. At an Ecosperity session, Singaporean bank DBS – Southeast Asia’s largest lender by assets and a member of the Sustainable Business Council – announced plans to take funding for new coal plants out of its lending matrix. 

But to turn statements into action, there needs to be investment and new technologies that require collaboration between states and businesses, across industries and borders.

Such coordination will inevitably take time to come together. Perry O’Neill is clear in her view that “everyone needs to get off coal” but showed some wariness of the pace of change.

“There is a sense of urgency that needs to happen, because these are really long tail decisions,” she said.

China, despite its pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060, has approved more coal power projects in the first three months of 2023 than all of 2021, a move Perry O’Neil noted will doubtless influence Southeast Asia.

At an Ecosperity fireside chat, Singapore Minister for Development Desmond Lee noted the need to be “realists with a quiet sense of optimism”. Perry O’Neill liked this combination.

“I’m not for chaos,” she asserted. “I’m for order and transparency. But I’m also fed up being told why we can’t do things. I think that is a very dangerous mindset.

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In Southeast Asia the quickly increasing risk profile calls for resilience building, not only to enable a return to how things were, but to prevent even bigger dangers. National-level policy in the region will need to devote a far higher share of investments to both mitigate climate change and adapt to it.

Singapore’s Green Plan 2030 is an example of seeing climate change as an existential threat and dedicating resources with a whole-of-government approach and anticipation toward climate and energy investment. As a living document that continues to evolve, the plan contains concrete steps to expand the coverage of trees and green spaces, cut solid and water wastage, expand public transportation, and most crucially, even if tough to achieve, switch from polluting fossil fuels to renewable, clean energy.   

But far more effort is needed in Southeast Asia to create the necessary conditions for driving sustainable development. The nature of risk has shifted from extreme danger being rare to frequent. Accordingly, far greater emphasis needs to be placed on averting the worst impacts of floods and storms, droughts, and heatwaves. Such a shift is necessary but politically difficult because the rewards of green investments are not always visible immediately but accrue over time.  

Southeast Asia under Severe Stress 

As rising temperatures grip the world, Southeast Asia has recently seen record-breaking temperatures that are already inflicting a severe blow to lives and livelihoods. A 1% increase in temperature could raise food production costs as much as 0.8% in Southeast Asian economies, as evidenced by food price hikes in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

With its population of nearly 700 million people, our region is among the primary victims of global warming. Featured at the top of lists of climate vulnerable countries, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar have had the highest numbers of people displaced due to natural calamities. Ironically, Southeast Asia is also a leading contributor to additional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional economies have grown at some 5% a year over the past decade with a 6% annual increase in electricity demand, most of it met unfortunately by fossil fuels. These polluting fuels comprise some 75% of Southeast Asia’s electricity, with coal at about 50%, with the green portion of the grid expanding far too slowly.       

Vietnam illustrates the challenge of securing economic growth in accordance with climate actions. Bangladesh and Vietnam are ranked at the top globally on exposure to flooding, and both risk losing a significant portion of GDP to climate damages. Vietnam’s GDP loss from climate change was an estimated 3.2% in 2020 and is expected to rise to as great as 14.5% by 2050 without strong action. 

The case is clear for prioritising such mitigation strategies as coastal embankments, residential and business zoning, retrofitting infrastructure and stronger drainage systems.

The Twin Tasks of Mitigation and Adaptation

The upshot of these trends is that GHG emissions and disasters are causally linked. With the current pattern of fossil-fuel led economic growth, sea levels will continue to rise. 

The water could climb 0.2 metres by 2050 in Singapore. Possibly there and elsewhere in low-lying Southeast Asia – together with land subsidence, or sinking in coastal cities – this kind of sea level would wreak havoc. The region would clearly want to be a leading advocate of wind, solar and other renewables, and ASEAN must make this direction its top priority.  

Since the late 1990s, ASEAN has said that renewables are a key to regional trade and integration based on regional power grids. Some regional power grids are in place—11 shared power lines currently run between six pairs of ASEAN countries—but they need to better handle the intermittency of renewable energy. Making progress on cross-border integration is essential especially as Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia are energy importers.

Because the climate disasters being witnessed today are the result of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere which will stay in place for decades, the priority for climate adaptation is patently clear. Adaptation efforts need to be multi-faceted, ranging from expenditure on infrastructure such as drainage systems and coastal embankments to spending on social sectors including health and safety nets. There is also a real need to call on stakeholders to work across their traditional sectoral boundaries, and not in isolated silos. 

Higher allocations of funding are needed to deal with disasters, but these funds ought to be approved in advance in order not to lose time with financing approvals during moments of crisis. Equally important is the efficient and timely deployment of funds, with ample monitoring and evaluation of its effectiveness on the ground to help improve performance. 

The spate of weather extremes confirms scientific predictions of the hand of human-made climate change in endangering lives and livelihoods. As Southeast Asia and other regions are busy dealing with the immediate fallout of soaring temperatures and deadly floods, it’s imperative they also prepare for worst-case scenarios down the road. To change this future direction for the better, public opinion needs to support disaster prevention and preparedness, not just disaster relief and rehabilitation. 

Vinod Thomas is Associate Senior Fellow, The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore and author of the new book Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change, Palgrave Macmillan, April 4, 2023.

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But now, with the help of the U.S. space agency NASA, satellite data is set to play an increasingly prominent role in taking the pulse of the river. The organisation announced in early May a growing initiative with the Mekong River Commission and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. The partnership will keep the gaze of an existing satellite network on the river basin in hopes of shrinking the “data equity” gap between its upper and lower stretches. 

Data sharing between Mekong countries has long been a flashpoint on the river, which is facing a cascade of compounding pressures. The satellite network will prioritise processing data on the river’s most existential concerns: hydropower development and climate change.

Experts hope real-time information on reservoirs, precipitation and water flow will eventually help riverside communities weather the changing ‘Mighty Mekong’. At the same time, they caution this data might not be easily accessible to local people for at least a few years, leaving many to guess at the extremes of the region’s monsoonal climate.

“There is an urgent need for data transparency to better understand how all these different factors are impacting the Mekong,” said Ming Li Yong, who studies transboundary river management with the East-West Center, a U.S. government research group. “But data transparency is one thing, what you do with that data to then make it useful to the people is another thing entirely.”

Spanning 4,350 kilometres, the Mekong is Southeast Asia’s longest river. The headwaters begin in China, where water rushes from the Tibetan plateau and the river is known as the Lancang. Downstream, the river flows through Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam before emptying into the South China Sea.

China operates 11 mainstream hydropower dams on its stretch of the river. While that infrastructure is not yet as robust in the Lower Basin, the desire for development is mirrored with 11 more dams proposed for Laos and Cambodia.

“These dams are operated in different countries, by different companies and there is not a lot of data transparency about how,” Yong said. “This has implications for communities who live along the river, who depend on the seasonal rise and fall of the Mekong, and implications for hydropower operations around the river.”

The relationship between China and the five downstream nations is “a little bit complicated” Yong said with a diplomatic pause. At the headwaters, China has the advantage in Mekong management, she explained, making it “hard to incentivise or obligate China to share data or listen to downstream concerns.”

China’s Ministry of Water Resources agreed to share year-round rainfall and river level data from two monitoring stations with the river commission in a “landmark agreement” in 2020. But river-watchers have long said more information is a must – both from China and the five lower Mekong nations, where the capacity to collect river data greatly varies.

“[Since] data sharing is also based on reciprocity, in the absence of that there is little incentive for countries to share with one another,” Yong said.

Tasked with navigating this pendulum of politics and the push-and-pull of the river itself is the Mekong River Commission, an advisory inter-governmental organisation with the seemingly thankless task of facilitating cooperative management and sustainable development of the waterway.

Commission CEO Anoulak Kittikhoun continuously emphasises the importance of data transparency. In the first ever ‘State of the Mekong’ address last year, he said data was key to “water diplomacy” and assuring Mekong management was decided by “facts, not feelings,” a sentiment he echoed in this year’s speech, specifically calling for more transparent information sharing on dams and reservoirs.

“The new data from SERVIR will have a positive impact on science-based conversations… It represents a step towards improved and more effective basin management,” wrote the Mekong River Commission Secretariat in an email to Southeast Asia Globe. “Without sufficient information, effective management is challenging. With the inclusion of additional data from diverse sources, we can compare and validate information, thus enhancing the quality of our knowledge.”

NASA developed the SERVIR satellite network, which is the entity partnering with the river commission, with the U.S. development agency USAID.

SERVIR uses a network of roughly 30 different satellites to process imagery for governments and regional organisations managing natural resources, explained Amanda Markert, the lead for SERVIR’s regional science coordination team. The initiative has already been active in the Lower Mekong for nearly a decade, developing reservoir assessment tools and tracking air pollution.

Over the next five years, Markert said, SERVIR will expand its scope across Southeast Asia and build data tools specifically for the Mekong.

“The public facing side is a web interface tool, a map that tells you different components of water going [in], water going out, water levels,” Markert said.

Related to hydropower, these Mekong tools will focus on tracking dam reservoir levels to learn how much water is being held back from the rest of the river.

However, the SERVIR team was quick to say the satellites won’t be tilted upstream.

“We are looking into the river that is flowing into the Lower Mekong, but we are not working specifically in China,” Markert said.

The China question also came up elsewhere in the partnership.

“Satellite data does not know boundaries between countries, so technically speaking, yes we can look at the reservoirs in China too,” said Peeranan Towashiraporn, a department director with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center and chief of party for the SERVIR project. 

Still, he added the initiative will “not look into the other reservoirs outside the region.”

Along the river, the dangerous duo of unannounced reservoir releases and heavy rainfall make vulnerable riverside communities even more susceptible to flash floods. On the flip side, an unknown amount of water being held back by upstream dams at the same time as low rainfall could also cripple agriculture around the Mekong.

“Rainfall is key … that is real-time information people are craving,” Peeranan said from Bangkok, where the centre is headquartered. “We can use that information to inform governments and regional institutions to take actions to address specific problems that could impact their people.”

As an example, he said that if farmers had months of advance notice about regional weather patterns and mainstream water levels, they could then prepare different crops or techniques to safeguard from flood or drought.

While tools to collect this data are currently being made, Peeranan said it may take up to four years until the data is readily accessible to farming and fishing communities that need it most.

“We have to make sure that this information and data can flow from the satellites to regional institutions to countries and all the way to communities that can utilise this information,” Peeranan said. “We may need to build upon the existing dissemination systems that countries already have from national to sub-national to local.”

Even though this is still a work in progress, he said the project is “bringing equity, in terms of accessibility to data and information, to everyone in this region.”

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Extreme heat waves battered Southeast Asia from April to May, with temperatures rising upwards of 45°C and setting harsh new records in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. As meteorologists track worldwide warming trends, the UN warns temperatures in Asia-Pacific are rising faster than the global average, adding to a climate crisis that experts say Southeast Asia is not prepared for.

Those already living in poverty are left feeling the heat the most.

“Globally, 2023 is forecast to be the hottest year on record and we have already seen records falling all over Southeast Asia,” said Laurie Parsons, a lecturer in human geography at Royal Holloway, University of London, who focuses on intertwined climate and labour issues. “But in livelihood terms the worst may well still be to come.”

Local Outlook

Much of Southeast Asia falls within the tropical climate zone, meaning temperatures are usually above 25°C year-round and, in the hottest months, can briefly rise above 40°C. 

But even with those historic highs, recent temperatures stand above and beyond. In the Mekong basin, neighboring nations set back-to-back records of sweltering heat through April and May. 

On 14 April, Thailand breezed past their national record, clocking in with a temperature of 45.4°C, which marked the first time the country recorded heat above 45°C. 

A few weeks later, Laos and Vietnam set dual records on 6 May posting 43.5°C and 44.2°C respectively. The next day, Cambodia recorded the hottest day ever in the month of May with a temperature of 41.7°C. 

Experts say it’s only going to get worse.

“Extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity – so will heatwaves and the associated impacts,” said Tiziana Bonapace, the director of disaster risk reduction with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. 

Bonapace added that such heat waves will likely go hand-in-hand with droughts.

She believes an early warning system to alert the public of impending extreme heat could mitigate its danger to vulnerable populations such as the poor, the elderly and the very young. 

Most regional governments already have ongoing initiatives to mitigate rising temperatures by upping investments in green energy and warning systems for some extreme weather events.

But as it stands, Mekong-region countries don’t yet have the infrastructure and services needed to meet the challenges presented by a warming climate. That’s especially true where heat presents a risk to the livelihoods of society’s most vulnerable, who are more likely to work outdoors or otherwise in manual labour.

“They are people that live on the subsistence line, and they live on daily earnings,” Bonapace said. “Being absent from their daily economic activity means no income for that day.”

The physical risk posed by extreme heat is the combination of heat and humidity which creates the “heat index”, according to Parsons. The index reflects the ability of the body to cool itself, with personal risk increasing with the two related factors. 

“From April to May, temperature generally drops by less than humidity rises, so it can be a very dangerous time for workers doing strenuous work,” said Parsons, who published an investigation last year into how the global garment industry affects vulnerable populations in Cambodia. 

The government there is updating its occupational health and safety regulations, but this remains a work in progress. 

“How comprehensive or effective this turns out to be, we will see,” Parsons said. For vulnerable workers, he added, “as of now, they are largely on their own.”

Regional Outlook

While the effects of climate change are felt around the world, the UN reports that over the past 60 years temperatures in the Asia-Pacific region have increased faster than the global average.

Without decisive action, climate change will increasingly drive poverty and inequality across the region.

Heat waves, which Bonapace classifies as “slow-onset disasters,” are to a large extent predictable. Authorities generally know the areas, timeframe, and people most likely to be affected. 

Even just a 24-hour warning of a heatwave can cut ensuing damages by 30%, Bonapace says. But even with an early warning, without proper social welfare protections the cyclical nature of poverty may keep vulnerable populations at risk.

Those who rely on daily wages may still subject themselves to unsafe working conditions for fear of losing out on a day’s wages, she said. To combat this, Bonapace believes governments should learn from the Covid-19 pandemic and implement a social protection scheme for periods of extreme heat.

But for many countries in the region, this will be easier said than done.

With that, rising temperatures are likely to be especially dangerous in countries such as Cambodia where social welfare laws are yet to be implemented and at-risk sectors – including the garment industry, but also agriculture and construction – dominate the national economy.

“Those with the least privilege tend to have the least capacity to choose and shape their environments, so they end up facing the worst impacts of the climate in the short and long term,” Parsons said. “In a country like Cambodia, poverty, climatic hazards and ill health become a vicious cycle.”

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Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for development especially in lower-income countries, which rely heavily on agriculture. In Cambodia, approximately 65% of the population is dependent on the agricultural sector, including fishing and non-timber forest products, both as sources of food but also economic growth.  

That reliance, along with high levels of poverty, is among the factors that have long led the World Bank and other organisations to identify Cambodia as particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In 2021, the national Ministry of Environment announced that about 79% of Cambodians had already been affected by a shifting climate, as seen through declining numbers of fish and agricultural production. 

“It was a cycle, and it kept happening,” Yorn Riya, a farmer from Prey Veng province and an internal migrant, told news outlet VOD that same year. 

Riya said farming required investments that couldn’t always be covered by the gains of a harvest, which also had to feed her family. As with thousands of other internal migrants, Riya traveled to the city for work to escape that cycle of struggling to make a living in the fields.

According to the World Bank, the vast majority of climate migrants are moving within their country’s borders as they seek better lives in a changing environment. By 2050, there could be approximately 216 million internal climate migrants globally and it is likely that urban areas will become hotspots for rural-to-urban migration. Cambodia seems to be no exception to this.

A 2018 study on migration as an adaptive response to climate change in Cambodia found that climate-related issues often led to debt and food insecurity. 

The study also found that up to 45% of the 218 households surveyed in three rural, northwestern areas had chosen to migrate. More than half of that migration was climate-related, but it is unclear to what extent it was internal or external.

A 2021 official report from the Environment Ministry and the National Council for Sustainable Development found that four of five interviewed respondents said that changes in resource availability and weather patterns have affected their ability to generate income and sustain their households.

“It is very difficult when I have no rice to sell. The most important thing for farmers is rice. If there is no water during a drought, how can I farm?” Chhorn Ngyim, a rice farmer in Kampong Thom province, told local outlet Khmer Times that year.

In 2022, Cambodian cashew nut farmers reported a sharp drop in prices and output for their crops in part due to climate change. According to Uon Silot, president of the Cashew nut Association of Cambodia, changes to growing conditions have produced “less and lower quality” of the nuts.

Coming to the city in search of a better paying job might at first glance seem like a way to escape “the cycle”. But is it really?

Challenges of future migration

The question we must ask concerns whether Cambodia is ready for this pattern of mass migration, and what we should do to better prepare the country to navigate this inevitable shift.

The first and leading concern is the high housing price generated by supply and demand mismatch. With more than 2.2 million people, Phnom Penh is currently a hotspot for commercial and business activities, serving as a gateway to the global economy. As the city continues to grow, the urbanised population is expected to increase 36% by 2050. The influx of people from rural areas coming into the city for work generates higher demand, especially for cheap rental housing. In Phnom Penh’s housing market, such projects are not nearly as attractive to real estate developers, who tend to prefer profitable and prestigious projects. 

The Cambodian office of international real estate and investment firm CBRE estimated last year that about 300 new gated housing communities, known as borey, would enter the market by the end of 2022. The firm expected another 400 borey to come online this year.

Such development leads to rising land values and pushes cheap rental housing further outside the city. Workers from provincial or rural areas will have to pay more for decent, convenient places to stay. Viewed in this light, the construction of additional, affordable urban housing should become an absolute imperative for the Cambodian government in both the short and long term.

More sustainable solutions

At the same time, urbanisation may also be a major contributor to climate change itself. 

As cities continue to grow, more buildings, vehicles and industries are required to accommodate people’s needs, resulting in higher greenhouse gas emissions. The UN Environment Programme estimates that cities are responsible for 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with transport and buildings being among the largest contributors. 

Adding to their vulnerability, low-skilled and unskilled internal migrants are just as vulnerable to employment loss as overseas migrants, with many reportedly employed in potentially unstable industries such as construction and garment manufacturing. 

Since the nature of work in Cambodia is already changing and being reshaped by the rapid introduction of new and advanced technologies, low-skilled and unskilled internal migrants are easily the first to be out of jobs. Losing these jobs makes them more likely to return home and fall back into a poverty cycle exacerbated by climate change – exactly the situation they initially tried to escape.

To mitigate this, rural development, as well as the development of smaller Cambodian towns and cities, will need to be a key component of the government’s strategy to navigate the impacts of climate change. 

Cambodia’s National Strategic Development Plan 2019-2023 lays some groundwork on key government priorities and actions for 2019-23. This broadly covers inclusive and sustainable development in rural areas, marked by economic diversification through promotion of entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized enterprises.

If rural people are able to be less reliant on agriculture, with a greater diversity of jobs in their hometowns, they will have less incentive to migrate far from home. This will further reduce the crowded population within Cambodia’s capital city and prevent rural brain drain.

This challenge of development will require increased government services, especially in education and vocational training, to better equip the population to navigate this shift. 

With the right help, people can take advantage of new technologies to adapt and become more resilient. Climate-smart agriculture, for instance, is an integrated approach introduced by the World Bank to achieve “triple wins” of increased productivity, reduced emissions and enhanced resilience. By utilising innovative technologies, expert knowledge, financial planning, and principles of sustainable agriculture, many countries have already won some ground in promoting smarter agriculture.

Remote working can also present a way to cut transportation costs, save time and energy and allow people to work regardless of their location. Investments in telecommunications infrastructure for rural areas are not often thought of as strategies for climate change adaptation but, given their potential as an alternative to migration, they should be reconsidered as such.

To cope with some of climate change’s more wide-ranging impacts, countries like Cambodia must harness their creativity. Rural development, including reliable education, training and telecommunications, as well as affordable urban housing, may not seem directly linked to climate fallout. But in the future, without strategic action on these issues and more, Cambodia’s path will be all the more arduous.    

Migration, regardless of whether it is to find new opportunities or escape disasters or insecurity, requires social cooperation. Only with a coordinated approach at local and national levels can Cambodia prepare to face this challenge.

Thong Sariputta is a Young Research Fellow at Cambodia-based think tank, Future Forum. Her research interests include labour migration, human security, and governance.

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As of 20 December, the death toll has risen to 635. The earthquake has also displaced over 100,000 people and  destroyed critical public infrastructure, creating instability across the affected areas. 

Experts warn that Indonesia could see an increase in deadly earthquakes over the next few years, and that preparation is key. In response, the Indonesian government has pledged to invest heavily in disaster-risk prevention and mitigation, aiming to reduce the impact of future earthquakes and other disasters. But many locals are wondering why it took so long. 

“During the first day, there were limited ambulances to help mobilise injured victims,” said Taufik Anugrah, head of Gabungan Relawan Cianjur Group, a local disaster relief group consisting of 30 volunteers. “But then we receive reinforcements from [neighbouring cities] like Sukabumi, Bogor, and Bandung.”

The emergency rooms are packed, and the hospitals have to prepare a makeshift tent in the parking area”

Taufik Anugrah, head of Gabungan Relawan Cianjur Group

Anugrah has been on the ground since day one of the crisis, aiding communities and government agencies with evacuations of those who are injured. His group is now focusing their efforts in managing three camps and running a public kitchen and medical team. “Every day, we prepare 150 to 200 portions of food, and our medical team also visits the refugee camps to help those who are sick and injured,” he said.

The Indonesian government has declared a state of emergency in the affected area and is providing aid and assistance to those affected. In response to the quake, the Indonesian National Disaster Mitigation Agency, known locally as BNPB,  has deployed hundreds of personnel and equipment to the affected areas working to provide temporary shelter and medical care to those affected, as well as conducting assessments of the damage. The Indonesian Navy also provided an emergency hospital in one of the affected areas. 

According to Anugrah, the local general hospitals are currently overwhelmed. “The emergency rooms are packed, and the hospitals have to prepare a makeshift tent in the parking area to accommodate the victims,” he said.

One of the obstacles volunteer groups and responders face is navigating the challenging logistics of delivering aid to hard to reach and heavily affected areas, such as remote villages like Galudra, Sukamulya, and Baru Kaso.

“The government had to utilise helicopters to reach affected areas that lie on higher ground,” Anugrah said. He recounted that the overwhelming effects of the earthquake has pushed for collaboration between both government and private sector response groups to speed up the time-sensitive evacuation process.

In the aftermath of the disaster, the challenge of providing adequate housing, food and basic necessities for those affected and displaced reflects the insufficient emergency response resources, according to Anugrah. 

One of the victims of the Cianjur earthquake, 23-year-old Akhsan Nurcholish, a student at Universitas Suryakencana, was in the middle of recording a lecture from his mobile phone when disaster struck. His video, which has been widely circulated on social media, shows a class full of 30 university students before the building started crumbling around them. 

“My friends and I immediately left the classroom to exit the building, Nurcholish said. “Later, we went back to evacuate our friends who were stuck or injured.”

Following the earthquake, he found his home damaged, with cracks on the walls and damage to the roof. He and his family decided to stay in a refugee camp until the residential area was cleared of threats of following aftershocks. Nurcholish said that although he feels that the disaster response was adequate, there are still infrastructure challenges throughout the affected area.

“There are areas which are hard to access by the government. On the fourth day, the Cugenang area has yet to receive aid at all, because of how hard it is to access the area,” he said. “Only after a team of volunteers from Bandung found the location and shared it in social media, the aid started to come in.” 

He added that the condition of the roads in Cugenang made it hard for response teams to reach the area.

Indonesia is a country that is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters.”

Yono Reksoprodjo, official, KKIP

On December 9, in an effort to aid communities, Letjen TNI Suharyanto, the head of the BNPB, handed over stimulant funds for local residents who were affected to help them survive and rebuild. Volunteers, government officials, and community members have also started action to rebuild schools and mosques that were damaged in the earthquake.

Yono Reksoprodjo, an official at Indonesia’s KKIP, the policy bureau for the defence industry, and former professional steering committee member to the BNPB, believes that the Indonesian government still needs to do more.

“Indonesia is a country that is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. Located in the ‘Pacific Ring of Fire,’ it is prone to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis,” he said. To add to that, the high volume of residents already living in disaster-prone areas makes the challenge not only cultural, but also economical in disaster mitigation and response in Indonesia.”

Reksoprodjo added that the government’s priority should be public education, especially in disaster-prone areas. “Routine disaster simulation will help increase awareness. The readiness of facilities and infrastructure also has to be fulfilled and exercised, as well,” he explained. 

As the world’s fourth most populous country, with 60% of its population residing on the island of Java, Reksoprodjo believes disaster preparedness should be the government’s priority. Another key aspect of Indonesia’s  efforts is the promotion of community-based disaster management by national and regional government agencies.

In a study prepared by APDC and UNDRR,  improvements have been made in developing a comprehensive risk financing system, including the On-call Fund, or a contingency funding mechanism for financing national level events. Although the Indonesian National Disaster Mitigation Agency has prepared a disaster map, further challenges are posed.

“Regional agencies also play a significant part in educating local communities of the dangers of natural disasters,” Reksoprodjo said. 

However, the availability of manpower to provide guidance and education, often coupled with budget limitations, is a persisting challenge faced in establishing community-based disaster preparedness systems. 

In recent years, Indonesia has taken steps to improve its disaster preparedness and resiliency. One of the key strategies used by the BNPB is the development of early warning systems. These systems use a combination of sensors, satellite data, and computer modelling to monitor potential hazards and alert communities in advance of an impending disaster.

The planned new Indonesian capital, Nusantara, which is slated to be inaugurated in 2024, takes seismic activities and disaster probabilities into account. According to a dossier prepared by the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), among the reasons why the capital city will be relocated are environmental concerns. Some include  annual flooding, continuous decrease of ground level, possible tsunamis, and finally,  threat of earthquakes. 

About a month after the earthquake, Nurcholish returned with his family to their home. Government and volunteers are starting to rebuild important infrastructure and life continues to pick back up in Cianjur.

Yet as a resident of an area prone to earthquakes, Nurcholish is frustrated that he never received information about the risks that came with living in Cianjur. “Before the earthquake, there was no socialisation of the risk. I didn’t know that there was a possibility of an earthquake [in the area],” he said. 

As Indonesia looks to the future with a plan of moving the capital to a safer zone, there are many other areas across the Indonesian archipelago that still need adequate preparation and disaster mitigation systems. 

“This is the first time a large quake struck Cianjur,” Nurcholish said.  “I hope in the future, the government will provide education and raise awareness so that the communities can remain alert.”

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Oceanographer Ruth Patterson of Charles Darwin University in Darwin, Australia, believes unmanned surface vessels (USVs) are the technology breakthrough needed to collect data to better model and forecast weather events in Southeast Asia.

Models created from the data collected with USVs could help communities in the region plan and prepare for extreme weather events, which are predicted to worsen due to a rapidly changing climate.

“The economies of Southeast Asia and northern Australia have not been geared towards the scientific collection of data, so there is very little data available about the oceans around Southeast Asia that directly impacts its weather,” said Patterson, a Ph.D. candidate whose research focuses on remote oceanography and data collection. 

“We have models, but the data that supports these models is limited. It makes any reliable modelling of extreme weather events extremely difficult,” she said.

Extreme weather events can have an exorbitant cost for countries in Southeast Asia because of a lack of resilient infrastructure, millions of people living in low lying regions susceptible to flooding and the sheer amount of exposed coastline, she said.

Hurricane Rai slammed into the Philippines as a Category 5 system in December 2021. There were sustained winds of 195 kilometres per hour (121 miles per hour) by the time the storm came ashore in Siargao. About 100,000 people evacuated before the storm crossed the coastline, but the extreme weather event claimed the lives of more than 400 people. 

Storms of the severity of Hurricane Rai in Southeast Asia do not just have a high human cost.

At around the same time Hurricane Rai hit the Philippines, severe storms and flooding forced the closure of Southeast Asia’s second largest port in Malaysia, which affected the supply of semiconductors across the globe. 

Having more precise modelling of weather systems will help communities and governments establish better plans and recover quickly from severe storms, Patterson said.

“Southeast Asia is known as the maritime continent, and it’s so complex,”  Patterson said.

USVs measure the exchange of moisture and gas between the ocean’s surface and the atmosphere, known as the air-sea flux, Patterson said.

“This flux can only be measured from a few centimetres to a few metres above the ocean’s surface, so it’s almost impossible for drones to do it, and satellite observations only produce coarse estimates,” Patterson explained.

The two major atmospheric phenomena delivering moisture and gas to and from the ocean are the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, but they are not understood well enough to reliably predict the weather events caused by their movements.

“Right now, there are not enough monitoring stations to provide regular and reliable data on their two systems,” Patterson said. Information about the two systems is important because their interaction is responsible for the pulses of extreme weather and heavy rain over Southeast Asia during monsoon season.

USVs remove the barrier of cost and safety from data collection in remote ocean areas, while also being robust enough to stay in the water for long periods of time and in varying conditions, Patterson said.

Piloting an USV through a hurricane shows the potential of the vessels to go where no one else can”

Ruth Patterson, Oceanographer, Charles Darwin University in Darwin

The value of USVs was highlighted in 2021 when a team from the United States designed an unmanned vessel to sail through the eye of a hurricane and successfully completed a voyage through Hurricane Sam as the storm approached the Caribbean in September, collecting data the world had not seen before.

“That’s a game changer… that’s exciting. Piloting an USV through a hurricane shows the potential of the vessels to go where no one else can,” Patterson said. “Imagine what we could learn from hurricanes in Southeast Asia, where there has been little data collected before.”

While USVs are being tested in extreme weather such as hurricanes, Patterson has focused her tests on the durability of USVs to remain on the water permanently collecting data, observing the ocean and protecting marine environments and equipment.

The accumulation of organic materials such as shellfish and seaweeds, known as fouling the hull, ultimately can sink the boats. 

“These are wind and solar powered platforms that deliver data to scientists every minute, the only reason they would stop would be because of fouling on the hull, but that takes many months,” she said.

Despite the advantages USVs offer in monitoring and collecting data to use in weather modelling, adopting the technology for research faces challenges.

Patterson’s research, published in the January 2022 edition of the journal Frontiers in Marine Science, investigated why USVs were not being adopted for research and surveillance, considering aerial drones were becoming increasingly popular.

One barrier to establishing USVs as a normalised, ocean-observing platform is the mismatch between available USV models and the needs of those who might use them, including defence, scientific and maritime industries. 

“To observe the ocean, globally, we use techniques as radical as animals fitted with tracking devices and underwater gliders, but USVs are not officially recognised in the global ocean observing system yet,” Patterson said. 

She added that there are few USVs on the market “suitable for continuous voyage and capable of surviving rugged ocean conditions.”

Another key barrier in the adoption of USVs is that most models require researchers to collect the vessels and then download the data, which increases costs.  

“Right now, most USVs need to be remote controlled in sight of the operator, or launched from a mothership, which is a step in the right direction, but isn’t really disruptive technology,” she said. “USVs will be valued most in very remote locations where they can be controlled using the internet and launched from dirt boat ramps or the beach.”

When commercial USV manufacturers and industries and organisations eventually team up to drastically increase the coverage and lower costs of ocean observation, Patterson predicts there will be a spike in the use of USVs.

At that point, her research vision of cost effective solutions for data monitoring on Southeast Asia’s remote ocean surfaces can be realised.

Troy Kippen is a scientific communications professional and writer working for Charles Darwin University in Australia.

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